Spot gold (XAUUSD) recovered to around $4,290 in the Asian morning on Friday after dipping to around $4,244, but remains stuck below $4,310. Markets still price roughly a 67% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, and the 10-year Treasury yield is holding above 5.1%.
Updated Fri 25 Sep 2026 · 02:42 GMT · Spot gold price as of the Asian morning 25 Sep 2026 (around 02:00 GMT)
vs previous close · The latest session traded in a $4,244–4,304 range (Kitco), still below $4,310 resistance
Key points for gold today
- 1Spot gold bounced to around $4,291 (+0.38%) on Friday morning but is still down about 6.6% over the past month
- 2CME FedWatch puts the odds of an October Fed rate hike at 67.5%, up from 55.4% a week earlier
- 3Nearby resistance at $4,310 and $4,359; support at $4,235 and $4,101
- 4Today, watch Durable Goods (12:30 GMT) and the revised UMich sentiment survey (14:00 GMT)
3 factors weighing on gold
- FEDMarkets raise bets on an October Fed hike
CME FedWatch shows about a 67.5% chance of a 0.25% rate hike, up from 55.4% a week earlier. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack sees inflation pressure as still elevated, and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said inflation needs to be addressed and further hikes may be needed
- 10YUS Treasury yields stay high
The 10-year yield was around 5.19% this morning after hitting its highest since 2007, while the 30-year yield is at its highest since 2004. Higher bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold
- OILOil rises, dollar near 2-month high
Stalled US–Iran talks pushed oil prices higher, stoking inflation worries and expectations that the Fed will stay hawkish. The dollar index (DXY) is around 101.2, near its highest in about 2 months, making dollar-priced gold more expensive for holders of other currencies
Support and resistance levels to watch
| $4,541 | R3 | 200-day simple moving average (SMA) |
| $4,359 | R2 | 100-day EMA |
| $4,310 | R1 | Cluster of the 50- and 100-day SMAs, near the 50% Fibonacci level at $4,316 |
| $4,291 | NOW | Latest price |
| $4,235 | S1 | Monthly low, near the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $4,227 |
| $4,101 | S2 | Fibonacci 78.6% |
| $4,000 | S3 | Broken former trendline and psychological support |
If gold rises / if it falls
Reclaims $4,310
Gold would break clear of the 50/100-day moving average cluster. Next levels are $4,359 and the 200-day SMA around $4,541. Supportive factors: weak US data today or a pullback in yields
Breaks below $4,235
Analysts see a break below the monthly low as confirming selling pressure, with next targets at $4,101 and $4,000. Headwinds: strong US data, rising inflation expectations and further gains in yields
Levels as of 24 Sep 2026, based on analysis from FXStreet. Not a trading recommendation
Today’s events that could move gold
- Durable Goods (Aug)Durable goods orders; a stronger-than-expected reading would support the dollar and weigh on goldMED
- UMich Sentiment (Sep, revised)The preliminary reading was 47.8 with 1-year inflation expectations at 4.6%; a further rise in inflation expectations would firm up bets on a Fed hikeHIGH
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