Spot gold (XAUUSD) is steady around $4,161 on Thursday morning in Asia. On Wednesday it jumped above $4,200 as soon as Core PCE came in softer than expected, but was sold back to close 0.56% lower as US Treasury yields kept rising. Markets have cut the odds of an October Fed hike to about 47%. Today’s focus is ISM manufacturing.
Updated Thu 1 Oct 2026 · 02:36 GMT · Spot gold price as of the Asian morning 1 Oct 2026 (around 02:20 GMT)
Change vs previous close · On Wednesday 30 Sep gold rose above $4,200 after PCE before closing at $4,158.47, down 0.56% (investingLive). Gold fell about 6% in September, its biggest monthly drop since June
Key points for gold today
- 1Spot gold is steady around $4,161 (+0.07%) this morning after closing Wednesday at $4,158.47, down 0.56%, despite briefly rising above $4,200 after PCE
- 2August Core PCE came in at 3.0% YoY below the 3.3% forecast. CME FedWatch odds of an October Fed hike fell to about 47% from around 70% earlier in the week
- 3Resistance $4,200 and the 100-day moving average around $4,287; support at $4,140, $4,100 and $3,996
- 4Today, watch jobless claims (12:30 GMT) and ISM manufacturing (14:00 GMT), followed by Nonfarm Payrolls (Fri 2 Oct, 12:30 GMT)
3 factors driving gold
- FEDSoft PCE trims bets on an October Fed hike
The BEA reported August Core PCE at 3.0% y/y (forecast 3.3%) and 0.2% m/m (forecast 0.3%), with headline PCE at 3.4% (forecast 3.7%). Markets cut the odds of a hike at the 28 Oct Fed meeting to about 47%. ING strategists said the data offers gold some support, but Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari still sounded hawkish, seeing scope for another hike this year (FXStreet, Bangkok Biz News)
- 30YLong-term yields keep rising as the US economy stays firm
The US 10-year yield closed Wednesday at 5.29% (+3.6bp) and the 30-year at 5.63% (investingLive) after Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2% and September ADP showed 90,000 new jobs. Higher yields raise the cost of holding non-yielding gold and are the main reason gold could not hold above $4,200
- OILOil stays high as US–Iran talks stall
WTI crude rose $0.92 to close at $90.30 a barrel on Wednesday, keeping energy-driven inflation worries alive, while the dollar index (DXY) is steady around 101.5. OCBC sees oil and the reaction in yields as the main short-term drivers; if data softens or yields ease, gold could stabilise (FXStreet)
Support and resistance levels to watch
| $4,287 | R2 | 100-day simple moving average (SMA); gold must reclaim it to turn bullish |
| $4,200 | R1 | Level where a break lower triggered further selling |
| $4,161 | NOW | Latest price (Trading Economics, around 02:20 GMT) |
| $4,140 | S1 | Lower Bollinger Band |
| $4,100 | S2 | First support in analyst views |
| $3,996 | S3 | 29 Jul low |
If gold rises / if it falls
Reclaims $4,200
Gold would move back into the zone it broke below. The next level is the 100-day moving average around $4,287, which analysts say must be cleared before calling a reversal higher. Supportive factors: a softer-than-expected ISM or prices index, and a pullback in yields
Breaks below $4,140 and $4,100
Selling could retest the 29 Jul low around $3,996, then $3,959 (17 Jul) and the year-to-date low at $3,941. Headwinds: a hotter-than-expected ISM prices index, further gains in yields or higher oil prices
Levels as of 30 Sep 2026, based on analysis from FXStreet. Not a trading recommendation
Today’s events that could move gold
- Weekly jobless claimsForecast 201,000 vs 197,000 previouslyMED
- S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Sep, final)Forecast 56.9 vs 57.0 flashMED
- ISM manufacturing (Sep)Forecast 54.8 vs 54.6, prices index forecast 72.9 vs 71.1. A hotter prices index could revive Fed hike bets and weigh on goldHIGH
- Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) · 2 OctNonfarm payrolls, a key input ahead of the 28 Oct Fed meetingHIGH
Gold stuck below $4,200 ahead of ISM: get cash back on every lot
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Sources (8)
- Trading Economics – Gold (1 Oct, around 02:20 GMT)
- investingLive – Americas wrap (30 Sep) gold close / yields / WTI
- FXStreet – Gold can’t catch a PCE break (30 Sep) support and resistance
- FXStreet – Gold falls to near $4,150 (Bollinger / OCBC / Kashkari)
- BEA – PCE / GDP
- CME FedWatch after PCE
- Bangkok Biz News – Spot gold steady (ING)
- Forex Factory – Calendar 1 Oct
Risk warning: Trading gold, forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This article is a summary for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices may have changed by the time you read it.
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