US NFP Sep 2026 Comes In at 29K, Far Below 90K Forecast; Jobless 4.2%

1. 1Payrolls rose just 29K vs 90K expected · August revised down from 162K to 133K and July from +21K to −10K
2. 2Unemployment rose to 4.2% and wages grew 0.1% m/m (3.0% y/y), both below forecast, easing wage-driven inflation pressure
3. 3DXY fell about 0.2% to around 101.8–101.9 Gold rose above $4,200 The market cut the odds of a Fed hike on 28 Oct to around 22% (per Reuters)

Previous = August · August NFP revised down from 162K to 133K and July from +21K to −10K (two-month total −60K) · Forecasts from Reuters / FXStreet polls (Forex Factory used 89K)

Prices before–after the release ~12:15 → ~13:10 GMT · Before: prices reported by investingLive around 12:15 GMT (DXY noted only as near 102) · After: Trading Economics around 13:10 GMT · FXStreet reported DXY down 0.23% to 101.80 right after the release · 10-year Treasury yield down 7bp to 5.17% (CoinDesk)

• Odds of an October Fed hike fall The whole report was weak at once: payrolls, unemployment, wages and the downward revisions. Reuters said the market now sees around a 22% chance of a hike at the 27–28 Oct meeting, down from about 69% a week earlier, so a dollar that had climbed near 102 lost a key pillar of support.
• Gold supported by lower yields Gold climbed back above $4,200 after the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to around 5.17%. If yields keep sliding, gold could test higher levels, but if the market decides the weak data reflects temporary factors, the buying may not last.
• Beware the “calendar effect” reading Some economists cited by Reuters argued that part of the weakness came from calendar effects around the Labor Day holiday, and there is still no sign of broad layoffs as jobless claims remain near multi-decade lows. The market may therefore refocus on inflation (mid-month CPI) rather than a single month of jobs data. Consider trading smaller while spreads are wide.

1. 4 Sep 2026August NFP first estimate 162K, unemployment 4.1%
2. 30 Sep 2026September ADP +90K, above forecast
3. 2 Oct 01:101TRADER publishes the preview (this page)
4. 2 Oct 12:30BLS releases September NFP 29K, unemployment 4.2%
5. 2 Oct 13:25Actual result and market reaction added to this page

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