The dollar (DXY) climbed to around 102, its highest since April 2025, after the prices index in the ISM manufacturing survey jumped to 77.9 and jobless claims stayed low. The euro fell to a yearly low near 1.1245, while gold edged higher as Treasury yields eased. Tonight at 12:30 GMT, markets await the September NFP jobs report.
Updated Fri 2 Oct 2026 · 01:10 GMT · Prices in this article as of the New York close on Thu 1 Oct 2026 (gold and oil prices for the morning of 2 Oct are noted in the text)
Key takeaways
- 1The September ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5, slightly below the 55.0 forecast, but the prices paid index jumped to 77.9 from 71.1, the employment index rose to 52.7 and jobless claims came in at 197K, below the 200K forecast
- 2The dollar (DXY) rose about 0.6% to around 102. EUR/USD fell 0.75% to a yearly low near 1.1245. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.34%, the highest since 2002, before closing lower near 5.24%
- 3Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said rates should rise by at least another 0.50%, but CME FedWatch still priced only about a 30–36% chance of an October Fed hike. Gold rose 0.4% to close around $4,176
- 4Tonight, watch September NFP (12:30 GMT). Markets expect 89K with unemployment at 4.1%. Before that comes the eurozone flash CPI (09:00 GMT)
Tonight’s events · Fri 2 Oct 2026
- Eurozone flash CPI (Sep)f/c 3.7% (prev 3.2%) · Core f/c 2.5% (prev 2.4%)HIGH
- Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)f/c 89K (prev 162K) · unemployment f/c 4.1% · monthly wages f/c 0.3%Read analysis →HIGH
- Factory orders (Aug)f/c 0.1% (prev 0.9%)LOW
- Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed) speaksafter saying rates need to rise by at least another 0.50%MED
Market overview
Approximate closing prices on Thursday 1 Oct 2026 (New York session) from Trading Economics, cross-checked with FXStreet and BabyPips (DXY closed around 102.0–102.1) · WTI is calculated from the 30 Sep close of $90.30 plus 2.8% (BabyPips), in line with the Trading Economics price of about $93.1 on the morning of 2 Oct · ▲▼ = daily change versus the 30 Sep close
Overnight market recap
On Thursday (1 Oct), the ISM reported the US September manufacturing index at 54.5, down slightly from 54.6 and below the 55.0 forecast, but the details were firm: new orders rose to 55.3, the employment index rose to 52.7, and the prices paid index jumped 6.8 points to 77.9, which the ISM attributed to steel and aluminium prices and import tariffs. Earlier, the Labor Department reported weekly jobless claims at 197K, below the 200K forecast. According to FXStreet, the dollar index (DXY) rose about 0.6% to around 102, its highest level since April 2025. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.34%, the highest since 2002, before easing to close near 5.24%, while EUR/USD fell to a yearly low and its lowest since May 2025.
On the Fed side, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said in a speech on 1 Oct that rates need to rise by at least another 0.50% to control inflation, and that the 0.25% hike in September was only a first step. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson urged patience as the economy is close to full employment. FXStreet reported that CME FedWatch priced about a 30–36% chance of a Fed hike on 28 Oct, but about an 83% chance of a hike by December. WTI crude rose about 2.8% to around $92.9 after the US ordered Iran’s UN delegation to leave New York as talks stalled, according to BabyPips, and investingLive reported that the US threatened to ban diesel exports unless Europe released oil reserves. This morning (2 Oct), WTI is around $93.1 and Brent around $102.7, according to Trading Economics.
“Rates need to rise by at least another 0.50%, and the September hike was only a first step”
View of Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, 1 Oct (paraphrased)
Asset by asset
Euro breaks below 1.13 to a yearly low near 1.1245
EUR/USD fell about 0.75% on Thursday (1 Oct) to close near 1.1245, according to Trading Economics, breaking below the previous low of 1.1312 from 29 Sep to set a new yearly low. FXStreet said it was the lowest level since May 2025, even though the eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI rose to 52.9, the highest since May 2022, as rate and yield differentials continue to favour the dollar. Today at 09:00 GMT brings the eurozone flash CPI, expected to accelerate to 3.7%; a reading in line with that could offer the euro some support.
USD/JPY near 158 despite hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI
USD/JPY rose about 0.34% to close Thursday (1 Oct) near 157.95, according to Trading Economics, with BabyPips reporting an intraday high around 158.2–158.4. This morning (2 Oct), Tokyo’s September CPI came in hot: the measure excluding fresh food rose to 2.7%, above the 2.4% forecast, from 1.8%, and the measure excluding fresh food and energy rose to 3.0% from 2.0%, according to FXStreet. Together with the BoJ summary of opinions, in which some members saw a case for hiking sooner if inflation overshoots, the yen saw some buying, but the rate gap with the US remains wide.
Gold rises against the dollar as Treasury yields ease
Despite the strong dollar, gold rose about 0.4% to close Thursday (1 Oct) around $4,175–4,176, according to FXStreet and BabyPips, as the 10-year Treasury yield eased about 4bp from its intraday high. This morning (2 Oct), the price slipped about 0.4% to around $4,161, according to Trading Economics. Technically, FXStreet sees first resistance at $4,200, followed by the 100-day moving average near $4,283, with support at $4,139 (the 1 Oct low) and $4,100. Read the full gold analysis →
What to watch today
On Friday 2 Oct, the day starts with the eurozone flash CPI at 09:00 GMT, with headline inflation expected to accelerate to 3.7% from 3.2% and core to 2.5% from 2.4%. The main event of the day is September Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 GMT. Markets expect 89K new jobs, slowing from 162K, with unemployment steady at 4.1% and average hourly earnings up 0.3%. Earlier labour data, including ADP (90K) and jobless claims, were fairly solid. If NFP comes in much stronger than expected and wages accelerate, markets could again price in higher odds of Fed rates rising on 28 Oct, and the dollar could extend gains from around 102. If it comes in much weaker than expected, the dollar’s sharp rally could see profit-taking. At 14:00 GMT come factory orders, and Lorie Logan of the Dallas Fed speaks again.
Our view
Markets are back to thinking that US inflation is not over. The sharp rise in the ISM prices index, together with oil rebounding on tensions with Iran, lifted the dollar to 102. The Fed itself remains divided between those who want to keep hiking and those who prefer to wait. Tonight’s NFP could therefore decide the dollar’s short-term direction, especially the wage figure. Prices could swing sharply both ways between 12:30 and 13:30 GMT.
- 1Watch wages tooIf wage growth runs above 0.3%, it could support the dollar even if the headline jobs number is not strong.
- 2The euro is in a downtrendAs long as it stays below 1.1312, any bounce is only a short-term recovery.
- 3Be careful around the dataSpreads often widen at the release — reduce position size and set an SL on every order.
Dollar hits 102 ahead of NFP night — get cash back on every lot
Rebate per lot · Standard Plus account
Rebate per lot · Standard account
Rebate per lot
1TRADER is a partner (IB) of these brokers and earns a commission when you open an account through our links · % is the share of the IB commission returned to you, not a percentage of your deposit · Rates as of Sep 2026 · Compare rebates across brokers
Learn to trade free with 1TRADER
Sources (15)
- ISM – Manufacturing PMI Sep (1 Oct)
- BLS – Employment Situation Aug / release schedule
- FXStreet – ISM / DXY (1 Oct)
- FXStreet – EUR/USD (1 Oct)
- FXStreet – GBP/USD (1 Oct)
- FXStreet – Gold / FedWatch (1 Oct)
- FXStreet – AUD/USD / Jefferson (1 Oct)
- FXStreet – Tokyo CPI (2 Oct)
- BabyPips – Market Recap (1 Oct)
- investingLive – Logan (1 Oct)
- investingLive – diesel
- Trading Economics – Currencies
- Trading Economics – Commodities
- Trading Economics – US 10Y
- Forex Factory – calendar 2 Oct (forecasts)
Risk warning: Trading forex, gold and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This news summary is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices in this article may have changed by the time you read it.
Compiled by the 1TRADER editorial teamEditorial policy and sourcesFull risk disclosureReport an error
Read more
Related news
Forex NewsGold Price Today 9 Oct 2026: XAUUSD Rises to $4,172 as Fed Holds Off
Forex NewsThai Baht Today 9 Oct 2026open 33.57–33.66 firmer as gold rises and the dollar eases, but foreigners still sell Thai stocks
Forex NewsWeekly Forex Recap 5–9 Oct 2026: Fed Opens Door to Hike, Dollar Up 4 Weeks
Forex NewsForex News 12 Oct 2026: Energy Truce Hits Oil, Gold Holds $4,200 Before CPI