The final September UMich consumer sentiment index came in at 48.1, above the 47.6 forecast and up from the preliminary 47.8, but inflation expectations did not ease, with the 1-year measure stuck at 4.6% and the 5-year at 3.4%.
Updated with actual results Fri 25 Sep 2026 · 14:49 GMT · First published 01:55 GMT (preview)
UMich Consumer Sentiment · Sep final
Released Fri 25 Sep 2026 · 14:00 GMT
Key points
- 1The headline index came in at 48.1, above the 47.6 forecast and the preliminary 47.8, but still below August’s 51.7
- 2The expectations index was revised up to 46.3 (preliminary 45.8), while current conditions were unchanged at 50.9
- 31-year inflation expectations 4.6% and 5-year 3.4%, unchanged from the preliminary reading · the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.20% after the release
Actual vs forecast
Actual figures from the University of Michigan, cross-checked with Trading Economics, Newsquawk and investingLive · Forecast from FXStreet · Preliminary reading released 11 Sep 2026
Market reaction
Market after the release 14:00 → 14:17 GMT · DXY from FXStreet (14:17 GMT) · Yield from investingLive · No clearly time-stamped gold or EUR/USD prices were found for 13:55–14:30 GMT, so they are not shown
What it means for traders
The headline beat was only marginal and sentiment remains near its lows, while 1-year inflation expectations stuck at 4.6% did little to ease worries about a Fed hike in October, as reflected in the 10-year yield hitting a session high of 5.20%. The dollar was still down about 0.3% on the day. In our newsroom’s view, the next moves in the dollar and gold are likely to depend more on next week’s PCE, ISM and US jobs data than on this release (this is a view, not investment advice).
What this event is and why markets care
The UMich consumer sentiment index is a monthly University of Michigan survey asking US households how they see their finances and the economy. It is released twice a month: a preliminary reading mid-month and a final reading at month-end.
The part markets watch most closely is 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations because the Fed uses them to gauge whether people expect inflation to stay high. If these rise, the Fed has more reason to hike rates.
Timeline
- Preliminary 47.8, below the 51.0 forecast · 1-year inflation 4.6%
- 1TRADER publishes the preview
- September final released: headline index 48.1, above the 47.6 forecast
- DXY at 100.95, down 0.30% on the day
- Actual result updated on this page
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Sources (7)
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