Spot gold (XAUUSD) has recovered to around $4,155 on Monday morning in Asia. On Friday it touched $4,227 as soon as NFP showed just 29K new jobs, but it could not hold above $4,200 and closed lower as US Treasury yields stayed high. Markets have cut the odds of an October Fed hike to about 22%. Today’s focus is ISM services.
Updated Mon 5 Oct 2026 · 02:56 GMT · Spot gold price as of the Asian morning 5 Oct 2026 (around 02:45 GMT)
Change vs Friday 2 Oct close · On Friday gold hit a high of $4,227 after NFP before closing around $4,140, down about 0.9%, for a weekly loss of about 3.4% (FXStreet, Trading Economics)
Key points for gold today
- 1Spot gold has recovered to around $4,155 (+0.37%) this morning after closing Friday around $4,140, but it is still down about 5.7% over the month
- 2September NFP came in at 29K versus 90K expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. CME FedWatch odds of a Fed hike on 28 Oct fell to about 22% but odds of a hike by December remain high at about 87%
- 3Resistance $4,200 and the 100-day moving average around $4,279; support at $4,100, $3,996 and $3,959
- 4Today, watch ISM services (14:00 GMT); this week’s highlight is the FOMC minutes (Wed 7 Oct, 18:00 GMT)
3 factors driving gold
- NFPWeak US jobs data trims bets on an October Fed hike
September nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29K, below the 90K forecast, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Markets cut the odds of a hike at the 28 Oct Fed meeting to about 22% according to CME FedWatch, which supports gold. However, markets still price about an 87% chance of a hike by December (FXStreet)
- 10YHigh yields keep gold below $4,200
The US 10-year yield rose to around 5.29% on Friday despite the weak jobs data. FXStreet says high yields raise the cost of holding non-yielding gold, the main reason gold touched $4,227 and was then sold back
- EUSafe-haven demand limits the downside
FXStreet’s weekly analysis says stress in European financial markets drew some money into gold despite a strong dollar, while softer oil prices after OPEC+ kept its November output target unchanged eased inflation worries somewhat. The dollar index (DXY) closed Friday around 101.89
Support and resistance levels to watch
| $4,279 | R2 | 100-day simple moving average (SMA), the start of the $4,280–4,330 resistance zone |
| $4,200 | R1 | Psychological level gold failed to hold after NFP |
| $4,155 | NOW | Latest price (Trading Economics, around 02:45 GMT) |
| $4,100 | S1 | First support in analyst views |
| $3,996 | S2 | 29 Jul low |
| $3,959 | S3 | 17 Jul low |
If gold rises / if it falls
Reclaims $4,200
The next level is the 100-day moving average around $4,279, the start of the $4,280–4,330 resistance zone where the 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages converge. Supportive factors: a weak ISM services reading and a pullback in yields
Breaks below $4,100
Selling could retest the 29 Jul low around $3,996, then $3,959 (17 Jul). The weekly analysis sees sellers keeping the upper hand in the short term. Headwinds: a strong ISM reading or further gains in yields
Levels as of 2 Oct 2026, based on analysis from FXStreet. Not a trading recommendation
Today’s events that could move gold
- S&P Global US services PMI (Sep, final)Forecast 58.7, unchanged from the flashLOW
- ISM services (Sep)Forecast 55.1 vs 55.4. A faster rise in prices paid could lift the dollar and yields and weigh on gold; a much weaker reading could send gold back to test $4,200HIGH
- FOMC minutes (Sep) · 7 OctMarkets will look at how much Fed officials discussed an October hikeHIGH
Gold recovers but stays below $4,200 ahead of ISM: get cash back on every lot
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