Spot gold (XAUUSD) is steady around $4,179 in the Asian morning on Wednesday after rebounding about 1.4–1.6% on Tuesday from an 8-week low. Softer-than-expected US job openings and consumer confidence data cut the odds of an October Fed rate hike to about 51.5%, while still-high long-term yields remain a headwind. Markets are waiting for PCE today.
Updated Wed 30 Sep 2026 · 03:35 GMT · Spot gold price as of the Asian morning 30 Sep 2026 (03:09 GMT)
Change as shown by Kitco at that time · On Tuesday 29 Sep gold rebounded about 1.4–1.6% (Kitco / Investing.com). It recently traded in a $4,112.80–4,188.60 range (Kitco) and remains below $4,200
Key points for gold today
- 1Spot gold rebounded about 1.4–1.6% on Tuesday from an 8-week low around $4,110 and is steady this morning near $4,179 (Kitco 03:09 GMT)
- 2CME FedWatch odds of an October Fed hike fell from 70.9% to 51.5% after softer-than-expected labour and consumer confidence data (Kitco, 29 Sep)
- 3First resistance at $4,200, then the 100-day moving average around $4,295; support at $4,165 and $4,110
- 4Today, watch ADP (12:15 GMT) and PCE (12:30 GMT), followed by ISM manufacturing (Thu 1 Oct, 14:00 GMT) and Nonfarm Payrolls (Fri 2 Oct, 12:30 GMT)
3 factors driving gold
- FEDSoft data trims bets on an October Fed hike
August JOLTS job openings came in at 7.079 million, below the 7.225 million forecast, and Conference Board consumer confidence for September fell to 81.9, the lowest since 2014. New York Fed President John Williams said there is no need to rush to hike, though he left the door open to another increase later in the year. The odds of an October hike fell to about 51.5% (Kitco, Investing.com)
- OILOil drops, easing inflation worries
WTI crude fell about 3.5% to $89.38 a barrel and Brent fell about 2.6% to $102.59 (Kitco, 29 Sep) on signs that Middle East oil exports are recovering, easing inflation pressure and supporting gold
- 30YLong-term yields at multi-year highs, dollar still firm
The US 30-year yield rose to around 5.62%, its highest since June 2002, while the 10-year yield is around 5.23%, near its highest since 2007. The dollar index (DXY) is around 101.35 and heading for a monthly gain of about 2% (Trading Economics, 30 Sep). Gold is still on track to end September down about 6%
Support and resistance levels to watch
| $4,325 | R3 | 21-day simple moving average (SMA) and Bollinger Band midline |
| $4,295 | R2 | 100-day simple moving average (SMA) |
| $4,200 | R1 | Level gold fell through; reclaiming it would weaken the bearish view |
| $4,179 | NOW | Latest price (Kitco 03:09 GMT) |
| $4,165 | S1 | Lower Bollinger Band |
| $4,110 | S2 | 8-week low (Mon 28 Sep) |
| $3,990 | S3 | Base of the uptrend line |
If gold rises / if it falls
Reclaims $4,200
Analysts say the bearish view would weaken if gold climbs back above $4,200. Next levels are the 100-day moving average around $4,295 and the 21-day moving average around $4,325. Supportive factors: softer-than-expected PCE or a pullback in yields
Breaks below $4,165
Selling could retest the 8-week low around $4,110, and if gold stays below $4,200 into NFP day, analysts see the next target at $4,000–3,950. Headwinds: hotter-than-expected PCE or further gains in yields
Levels as of 29 Sep 2026, based on analysis from FXStreet. Not a trading recommendation
Today’s events that could move gold
- ADP private payrolls (Sep)Forecast around 38,000, the first signal ahead of Friday’s jobs reportMED
- PCE and Core PCE (Aug)The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; Core PCE expected at +0.2% m/m and 3.3% y/y. A hotter reading would raise the odds of a Fed hike and weigh on goldHIGH
- Chicago PMI (Sep)Forecast around 47.1MED
- ISM manufacturing (Sep) · 1 OctForecast around 54.6HIGH
- Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) · 2 OctNonfarm payrolls, a key input for the Fed’s October meetingHIGH
Gold bounces near $4,180 ahead of PCE: get cash back on every lot
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Sources (10)
- Kitco – Gold (30 Sep, 03:09 GMT)
- Kitco PM Report (29 Sep) – JOLTS / Conference Board / FedWatch / oil
- Investing.com – Gold steadies after 1.6% gain
- Trading Economics – Gold
- Trading Economics – US 10Y
- Trading Economics – DXY
- FXStreet – Gold rebounds from eight-week low (29 Sep)
- FXStreet – 3 Gold Forecasts at $4,200
- FXStreet – Gold Price Forecast (29 Sep)
- Trading Economics – US calendar
Risk warning: Trading gold, forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and you may lose all of your capital. This article is a summary for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices may have changed by the time you read it.
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