US Core PCE Aug 2026 Comes In at 3.0%, Below 3.3% Forecast; Dollar Slips

1. 1August Core PCE came in at 3.0% YoY, below the 3.3% forecast, while the monthly reading rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast · Headline PCE 3.4% y/y and 0.3% m/m
2. 2BEA also carried out its annual data revision at the same time, lowering July Core PCE to 3.0% (from 3.3%), the same as this month. The figure is therefore more “below forecast” than a “real slowdown”.
3. 3The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.3% to 101.05 after the release, and markets cut the odds of a Fed rate hike in October to below 40% from around 70% last Friday (Trading Economics).

Actual figures from BEA · Latest pre-release forecasts from FXStreet / Newsquawk / investingLive (this morning’s preview used Core 3.4% y/y per CMC Markets) · “Previous” is the July figure released on 26 Aug · After the annual revision, July was revised to Core 3.0% y/y / 0.1% m/m and headline PCE 3.4% y/y / 0.1% m/m

Prices before → after the release, GMT · Levels are taken from news sources at the stated times, not prices at the same minute · Before: FXStreet · After: FXStreet (DXY 12:37 GMT) and Trading Economics (gold, euro, yen around 13:23 GMT)

This release eases pressure on the Fed to rush into a rate hike in October. Markets reacted by the textbook, selling the dollar immediately: the Dollar Index slipped from around 101.20 to 101.05, while gold edged up to hold near $4,195, close to the $4,200 level. The yen extended gains after warnings from Japanese officials earlier in the day.

But read the whole picture. The miss came mainly from revisions to past data. Compared with the revised July figure, Core PCE held steady at 3.0% rather than slowing, and it is still a full point above the Fed’s 2% target. Personal spending grew a strong 0.9% (0.6% after inflation), outpacing income, which rose only 0.2%, so the saving rate fell to 4.1%. Consumers are still spending heavily, so a single month of data like this may not be enough for the Fed to change its stance.

For short-term trading, the dollar has weakened but has not broken its uptrend. EUR/USD remains near its lowest since May 2025, and gold still needs to hold above $4,200 before it can be called a reversal. The next decider is nonfarm payrolls (NFP) on Fri 2 Oct. Check the time in the economic calendar

1. 26 Aug 2026July Core PCE first estimate 3.3% y/y · Headline PCE 3.7%
2. 30 Sep 03:401TRADER publishes the preview
3. 30 Sep 12:30BEA releases August PCE with the annual revision · Core 3.0%, below forecast
4. 30 Sep 13:30Actual results and market reaction updated on this page

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