The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest since 2002, keeping the dollar firm even as US consumer confidence slumped to a 12-year low. Gold bounced back to around $4,180, the yen firmed in Asian trade, and markets now await the PCE price index at 12:30 GMT.
Updated Wed 30 Sep 2026 · 03:40 GMT · Prices as of the New York close on Tue 29 Sep 2026 (USD/JPY, AUD/USD and gold in Asian trade on 30 Sep are timed in the text)
Key takeaways
- 1The 30-year yield closed Tuesday (29 Sep) at 5.59% — the highest since 2002. The dollar (DXY) rose toward 101.60, its highest since late July, while the euro and pound fell to 3-month lows
- 2US data were weak: Conference Board consumer confidence slumped to 81.9 (f/c 89.2) and JOLTS job openings came in at 7.08 million, below the 7.23 million forecast
- 3The RBA raised rates to 4.60% but AUD/USD slipped below 0.70 · The yen firmed in Asian trade, with USD/JPY down to around 156.4–156.7 on Japan’s fiscal half-year end
- 4Today, watch ADP (12:15 GMT) and US PCE (12:30 GMT) with Core PCE expected at 3.4% y/y
Today’s events · Wed 30 Sep 2026
- ADP private payrolls (Sep)f/c 73K (prev 38K)MED
- HIGH
- Q2 GDP (final)f/c 1.5% (previous estimate 1.5%)MED
- Fed speakersBarkin 17:30 · Cook 19:25 · Goolsbee 21:10 · Kashkari 22:00 GMTMED
Market overview
Approximate closing prices on Tuesday 29 Sep 2026 (New York session) from TradingView (DXY) and Trading Economics · ▲▼ = daily change versus the 28 Sep close · 3M = 3-month low
Overnight market recap
On Tuesday (29 Sep), markets faced weaker-than-expected US data. The Conference Board’s September consumer confidence index slumped to 81.9 against an 89.2 forecast, the lowest since 2014, while August JOLTS job openings came in at 7.079 million, below the 7.225 million forecast. Long-dated yields kept rising anyway: the 30-year yield added another 3bp to close at 5.59% — the highest since 2002, according to investingLive, with the 2-year yield around 4.88%. The dollar (DXY) therefore rose toward 101.60 for the first time since late July, the euro fell to a 3-month low and the pound tested the 1.3200 area.
On the Fed side, New York Fed President John Williams said one more rate hike this year would probably be enough, but stressed there is no urgency and that policy depends on the data. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that letting inflation run above target for about five and a half years is risky. According to Trading Economics, swap markets price nearly 1% of Fed rate hikes over the next 12 months, and FXStreet, citing CME FedWatch, put the odds of an October hike at around 70%. WTI crude fell about $3.41 to settle near $89 after the US released 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and mediators stepped into talks with Iran. In Australia, the RBA voted unanimously to raise rates by 0.25% to 4.60%, yet AUD/USD slipped below 0.7000. In Asian trade on 30 Sep, after August CPI came in at 4.0% y/y as expected, the Aussie fell to around 0.6950, a 2-month low, while China’s NBS manufacturing PMI printed 50.1.
“There is no urgency to raise rates again, although one more hike late in the year may be appropriate.”
New York Fed President John Williams, 29 Sep (paraphrased)
Asset by asset
Euro near 1.1340, a 3-month low; German CPI in focus today
The euro hit a 3-month low on Tuesday (29 Sep) and traded around 1.1339 in Asian trade on Wednesday (30 Sep), according to Trading Economics. The dollar is drawing support from yields, while ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that a measured response remains appropriate and that she has not yet seen energy prices feed through to wages. Today brings preliminary German CPI (f/c +0.5% m/m from 0.2%) and German retail sales. A break below 1.1325, the year’s low set in June, would put 1.1300 next in view, according to FXStreet.
Yen firms as USD/JPY drops below 157 on Japan’s half-year end
In Asian trade on Wednesday (30 Sep), USD/JPY fell about 0.7% from around 157.5 to 156.4, according to investingLive, as Japan’s fiscal half-year ended and Japanese exporters and investors repatriated foreign currency, helped by Williams’ comment that the Fed need not rush. This came despite weak Japanese data: August industrial production −1.7% m/m (f/c +1.7%) and retail sales +2.7% y/y (f/c 3.3%). Japanese officials keep warning about yen weakness. The BoJ rate stands at 1.25%, and markets see roughly a 20–30% chance of an October hike. The Tankan survey is due at 23:50 GMT today (30 Sep).
Gold rebounds from an 8-week low, holds near $4,180
Gold recovered about $56 on Tuesday (29 Sep) after falling almost 4% on Monday, helped by softer oil prices. In Asian trade on Wednesday (30 Sep) it held around $4,179, according to Trading Economics. High yields remain a headwind, however. Technically, FXStreet notes that price is still below the 100-day moving average near $4,295 and the 14-day RSI around 40 remains in bearish territory, with support at the lower Bollinger band near $4,165.
What to watch today
On Wednesday 30 Sep, the session starts with ADP private payrolls at 12:15 GMT (f/c 73K), followed by the main event, the US PCE price index for August at 12:30 GMT. Core PCE is expected to rise 0.3% m/m and to 3.4% y/y from 3.3%. The BEA is also publishing its annual revision, so past data may be revised. A hotter Core PCE would strengthen the case for Fed rate hikes in October, while a softer print, combined with the slump in consumer confidence, could trigger profit-taking in the dollar. The final Q2 GDP reading is released at the same time. Fed speakers Barkin, Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari are scheduled later in the day, Japan’s Tankan survey follows at 23:50 GMT, and nonfarm payrolls (NFP) are due on Friday 2 Oct. Chinese markets close for a long holiday from 1 Oct.
Our view
The market is being pulled in two directions. On one side are long-dated yields at multi-decade highs, which support the dollar; on the other is softening US data, from consumer confidence to job openings. Today’s PCE will show which side wins. The yen’s strength in Asian trade mainly reflects half-year-end flows, which may fade once the new half begins tomorrow.
- 1Wait for the dataPrices may whipsaw both ways between 12:15 and 12:30 GMT; there is no need to open positions before the release
- 2Gold is still just a bounceAs long as it stays below $4,295 and yields remain high, the main trend has not changed
- 3Use a stop-loss on every tradeUSD/JPY is volatile on both flows and intervention risk
PCE today could mean big swings: get cash back on every lot
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Sources (16)
- BEA – PCE / GDP release schedule (30 Sep)
- RBA – Monetary Policy Decision (29 Sep)
- investingLive – Americas wrap (29 Sep)
- investingLive – USD/JPY (30 Sep)
- FXStreet – Forex Today (29 Sep)
- FXStreet – Gold (30 Sep)
- FXStreet – JPY / FedWatch
- FXStreet – AUD / Australian CPI / China PMI (30 Sep)
- FXStreet – EUR/USD
- TradingView – DXY
- Trading Economics – DXY / EUR / GBP / JPY / AUD
- Trading Economics – US Yields
- Trading Economics – Gold
- Trading Economics – WTI
- Investing.com – Core PCE (forecast)
- Forex Factory – calendar 30 Sep (forecasts)
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